Morning Joe 5/15/2012 -- Forget the polls

On Morning Joe today during the first segment the topic was mainly focused on the polls showing Romney leading Obama in almost all categories, even among women. Don't be lulled into following the ups and downs of the polls. These polls could be correct, but I thought that last week when the polls showed Obama leading that Romney was doing better. The problem with allowing polls to determine the momentum is that right before the election at the end of the year all polls will likely show Obama leading. I've seen this in several elections that "surprised" the media. It's best to pay attention to the economy, gas prices, employment, overseas entanglements, etc. -- these will tell you more about the mood of the country.

What pundits are either ignoring or missing is that in 2008 Americans were suffering from the effects of government interventions brought on by the Republicans and Democrats, but Bush was President, and Bush didn't do anything to fight against the interventions, and, in fact, he promoted some of the interventions, so the public turned on him. The public turned on Bush, though, only because the interventions didn't work. The public did not yet understand that the problem is the interventions, per se, and that practically all economic interventions have unintended consequences. 

In 2008, Americans had not yet thought deeply enough about politics and economics, but that changed when they realized how deep and dangerous this recession had become. This is the first time I've seen a national conversation so broadly considering the appropriate role of government in the economy and in our lives, including the Reagan years. The Information Age has allowed the conversation more depth and breadth, and the seriousness of our debt and financial problems, plus the crisis in the EU, have all caused Americans to think about statism and it's consequences. But, in 2008, as Obama was voted in, it was a combination of anti-Bush and pro-historical President who offered hope that created the fervor for Obama. At that time Americans still did not fully understand the problems with government interventions.

Now, after over three years of government interventions on steroids and debt that we couldn't imagine in 2008, Americans are rejecting technocrats who only offer government solutions. The guests on Morning Joe, Sam Stein, Mark Halperin, Chuck Todd, Andrea Mitchell, Eugene Washington, and the other statists who populate the show on a frequent basis are trying to figure out why the polls are up and down. Who knows why they are up and down, but polls won't determine who wins, and polls don't change reality. There's a good probability the polls are being manipulated, because the political class will do anything to save the present statist system.

Interventionists on both the Left and Right are convinced that government actions -- investments, tax hikes, regulations -- are necessary to pull the country out of economic stagnation, but the country is ready to give someone like Mitt Romney a chance, if he will actually help get government out of the way and stop the expensive and wasteful government interventions.

I think the pundits, like the ones who frequent Morning Joe, overestimated the strength of the support for Obama in 2008, and, now, they underestimate the public's desire to empower the private sector. I'm not completely convinced that enough people are promoting private sector empowerment to overcome the statists, but there's a good chance it can happen if things get worse. Recently, Republicans in congress have drifted back to their statist ways, so it will be interesting how Romney reacts -- will Romney lead the GOP to economic freedom and limited government, or will he be just one more status quo politician enamored with expanding State power?