The progressives are heading for what should be a disaster, but they might avoid the consequences of their actions if Republicans don't quickly offer a valid alternative that acknowledges all the errors made by the Bush administration. I personally don't believe the Republicans have it in them to represent those in America who are resisting government over-reach. The Libertarian Party doesn't have the political clout to make a stand, so if the Republicans cannot take advantage of the current Democrat Party turmoil and statist over-reach, the progressives will stay in power out of a lack of an alternative.
The Republican moderates hope to build a big tent effect and attract independents, but there is no capable leadership for this movement, and no clear understanding of what the moderates stand for. We know they hate Limbaugh, Palin, Beck, Levin, Hannity and other base conservatives, but what is their fire-in-the-belly purpose and vision? Some amorphous plan to be open-minded and anti-ideological is not enough to ignite support.
The moderates may also be misreading the opposition to Obama and the Democrat congress -- they appear to think the opposition is merely a yahoo uprising -- they're missing the widespread discontent caused by a powerful, interventionist state. The conservative base has the right ideas regarding limited government and more power to the free market. If the moderates can't support limited government and a free market, then they are an obstacle to real reform in the Republican Party -- the Republican support didn't evaporate in 2008 because Bush was too libertarian -- it's because he acted like a coked-up liberal the last couple of years of his presidency. If he had stood up for limited government and free market principles, the Iraq war would not have become an albatross around his neck. I agree the wars need to end, but the continuance of both haven't hurt Obama. Even if the media would have treated a Republican President differently, if McCain had won, the media has lost credibility, for the most part -- enough to be overlooked on some issues when everything else is principled action. However, any Republican candidate needs to run on getting out of the Middle East and staying out -- and staying out of all other internal conflicts which don't directly harm us. The idea of proactively striking has to be smashed -- there's no way to be sure enough to make that commitment of forces. We'll have to find defensive means to prevent terrorism, and answer swiftly and decisively if attacked -- hit, punish and get out.
Republican voters were fed up with Bush, and McCain was a bad moderate choice -- both of these factors, plus Obama being a historical candidate, sealed the Republican loss. But now the country is getting their fill of Obama and the Democrat congress, and much of the country is hungry for someone with principles, who will say no to the dependents who use government as an ATM machine (not people in true need, but able-bodied dependents) -- someone to bring the country back to the reality of individual rights, free market principles, self-responsibility and private communities of problem solving citizens.
In a more ideal, libertarian society, we wouldn't need a political leader, but we haven't evolved to that level of responsibility and freedom -- however, we need to start in that direction, and, unfortunately, it will take a leader to bring the American people back to trust capitalism and back to their senses. The conservative base which is talking all libertarian now needs to put action where their mouths are. I like the libertarian talk, but will they follow through if they regain power, or will they capitulate to the progressive agenda? Or, will they turn too much to the right and start nanny-managing from a moral stance? Will they be guided by the neo-cons and extend the quagmire in the Middle East? Will they talk a good game but legislate like statists of a different kind?
The moderates need to stop whining and and quit trying to be political-buddies to the liberals -- liberalism is dead -- all the liberals are turning into progressives. What I envision is the best of the moderates and the best of the base, fused together by libertarian principles which can work in today's society -- less conservatism and more classical liberalism. I might be wrong, but I think libertarianism, in a much less philosophical form, is pushing the growth of independents. If I'm right, a leader who can understand that modified libertarian mindset, and can articulate the principles straightforwardly, can win in a landslide in 2012.
It won't be Libertopia, but it will be better than what's coming if we lay down, become apatheic and don't stop it.